Liu Yingkuan: China's solar photovoltaic power generation has huge development space in the next 10 years

Liu Yingkuan, a new energy expert in China and chairman of Ningxia Power Generation Group Corporation, predicted in an interview with China Central Radio that China should arrange at least 150 million kilowatts of solar photovoltaic power generation in the next 10 years to meet the strong social and environmental demand for renewable energy . Liu Yingkuan, chairman of Ningxia Power Generation Corporation, was interviewed by reporters yesterday at the site where Ningxia Hongsibao Solar Power Station, the largest photovoltaic power plant in China, was fully commissioned and connected to the grid.

He believes that by the end of this year, the country ’s power generation capacity will be 4.5 trillion kWh, and its GDP will double by 2020. Considering the electricity elasticity coefficient as 1, the country ’s full-caliber power generation will reach 9 trillion kWh in 2020. The coal supply and environmental endurance will be greatly challenged. The water electrode may be constrained by resources and the environment, and nuclear power will inevitably be constrained by nuclear safety. Therefore, wind power and photovoltaic new energy will become the main development poles of energy.

At that time, the gap in power demand can be solved by solar photovoltaic power generation and other renewable energy sources and power saving. Solar photovoltaic power generation is required to contribute about 0.2-0.3 trillion kWh of electricity, and the corresponding installed capacity should be more than 150 million kW. Therefore, it is recommended that China will arrange at least 150 million to 200 million kilowatts of solar photovoltaic power generation in the next 10 years.

Liu Yingkuan said that the cost and price of solar photovoltaic power generation are also the most concerned by everyone. At present, according to the practice of photovoltaic grid-connected power generation, the main factors affecting the large-scale development of photovoltaic power generation are the high construction cost of crystalline silicon photovoltaic power plants and the fact that the actual electricity and theoretical electricity The problem of large gaps, the actual utilization hours are 15% to 20% lower than the theoretical utilization hours, which is mainly caused by atmospheric pollution.

As a result, the full-cost electricity price of the grid-connected electricity at the current cost level of solar power generation is far from the benchmark electricity price of the thermal power grid, which is about 3 to 4 times the current benchmark electricity price of the thermal power grid, and about twice the tariff of the wind power grid. However, it should be noted that the time available for photovoltaic power generation is at the peak of the power load. With the depletion of traditional energy sources and rising prices, coupled with the state ’s policy support and guidance, and the organization of photovoltaic power generation including polysilicon production and The technological breakthroughs in the manufacture of grid-connected equipment have caused the construction cost of photovoltaic power plants to drop as soon as possible. At present, there has been an on-grid electricity price of 0.7 yuan per degree bidding.

By 2020, the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation on-grid will likely compete with the average on-grid electricity price of thermal power generation, and the price-performance ratio may also be lower than the national average on-grid electricity price. Therefore, he suggested that the state should use price leverage and policy measures to encourage the rapid and orderly construction of solar photovoltaic grid-connected power plants.