New energy vehicle production and sales growth accelerated _ focus on three major opportunities

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the latest statistics showing that in July, China's new energy vehicles produced 5,799 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10 times. At the same time, the China Automobile Industry Association ("CSCC") released data show that in the first half of the year, the national new energy vehicle sales have exceeded 20,000, which is 2,400 higher than the total sales volume last year.

From January to July this year, China's new energy vehicles produced a total of 25,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 280%. Among them, pure electric passenger cars produced 13,800 units, an increase of nearly 7 times year-on-year, and plug-in hybrid passenger cars produced 5,027 units, an increase of nearly 10 times.

Relevant persons from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also said that the first batch of "New Energy Vehicle Models Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Tax" must be launched before the end of August. As the catalogue update will cover most new energy vehicles, other types of energy-saving vehicle support policies will also be developed. .

It is reported that the exemption of vehicle purchase tax new energy auto enterprise qualification examination has been closed on August 12, the application for the first batch of "exemption of vehicle purchase tax new energy vehicle model catalogue" enterprises must report the vehicle type information to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology before the 18th.

According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in 2012, China sold 12,791 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 103.9%. In 2013, sales reached 17,642 units. In the first half of this year, new energy vehicles sold 20,477 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.2 times.

"It is estimated that the production and sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 50,000 units this year, which is three times that of last year." Dong Yang said that the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy will be implemented on September 1, and government agencies and public institutions will purchase new energy vehicles. The plan, as well as the abolition of local new energy vehicle promotion catalogues, breaking local protection and other initiatives, will stimulate the upsurge of new energy vehicle consumption.

It is reported that up to now, a total of 88 cities have been included in the demonstration of new energy vehicles. In these pilot cities, in addition to subsidies from the state finances, local finances have also subsidized them.

Charging piles are expected to innovate in business model for a long time

The charging pile operation industry is still in its infancy. Due to the high investment cost in the early stage of charging station construction, the lack of scientific construction layout of some charging pile operators, the low utilization rate of charging piles, and the unclear profit model of operators, it is difficult for enterprises to make profits at this stage.

At present, there are many participants in the charging pile operation market, the overall competition pattern is scattered, and the market potential is huge. According to the statistics of the charging alliance, as of the end of November 2017, the number of charging stations owned by State Grid Corporation, Star Charging, China Putian and SAIC An Yue ranks among the top in the domestic operators, and the number is over 6,000. Although the number of charging piles owned by operators is very large, as the construction of charging piles in China has just started, the scale of charging piles owned by each company is still far from the planned target of 4.8 million in 2020, and the potential space of the market is huge.

It is expected that with the continuous improvement of the number of new energy vehicles and the gradual acceleration of the marketization process, the competition in the charging operation market will become increasingly fierce, and the industry reshuffle will be inevitable in the future. In the end, a small number of large-scale platform operators will be formed. A large number of small and medium-sized operators will rely on the industrial ecological pattern of large platforms. Operators relying on charging networks, Internet of Things, transportation networks and the Internet will be more likely to stand out.

The double-point policy guides the healthy development of the industry, and the new energy vehicle ushers in the era of parity. The launch of the double-point system shows that the relevant departments have gradually changed from the industry demand leader to the industry development leader, providing power for the new energy vehicles in the production side, and benefiting the leading enterprises to be strong. After calculation, considering the cost transfer brought by the integral policy, in the case of no subsidy, based on certain assumptions, it is estimated that the full life cycle cost of electric vehicles will be lower than that of fuel vehicles by 2021, and the purchase cost of electric vehicles will be lower than that of fuel by 2025. The car has an economic advantage. We believe that the subsidy will not change the growth trend of new energy vehicles in 2018, the demand for various types of vehicles will be guaranteed, and the new energy auto sector will be firmly optimistic in the long run.

Upstream: Cobalt is still the key lithium to see prices and valuations

As far as cobalt is concerned, the policy has led the technological development route of new energy vehicles to increase energy density and high cruising range, driving demand for ternary batteries to continue to rise. As an important raw material for the ternary positive electrode, the demand for cobalt is expected to remain strong in the future. Under the tight supply and demand pattern, we expect the future trend of cobalt prices to remain strong.

In terms of lithium, taking into account the adjustment of the national compensation to the first half of 2018, superimposed the factors of downstream enterprises in the fourth quarter of 2017 to actively reduce production and inventory, the higher power battery inventory has been better eased last year. This year's downstream vehicle production and sales growth is expected to bring about a recovery in production and production of the power battery industry, and bring about an increase in demand for lithium carbonate.

On the supply side, based on the statistics of the expansion plans of the major salt lakes in China and abroad, we conclude that the supply of lithium carbonate will continue to grow steadily in 2018, and it will be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the actual release effect of lithium extraction capacity in the salt lake will remain in the future. to be observed. Driven by downstream demand, we expect lithium carbonate prices to gradually stabilize and rebound in 2018. It is recommended to pay attention to the related standards of the lithium and cobalt industry, and pay attention to the combination technology of ternary cobalt precursors.

Downstream: Policy plus code charging pile is expected to usher in construction boom

We believe that the continued growth of new energy vehicles and the strengthening of policy support will become the main driving factors for the future charging pile industry. Specifically, according to the goal of building 4.8 million charging piles by 2020, the construction planning and preferential treatment policies for charging piles of relevant departments in various places have been successively introduced. The adjustment of ground compensation is tilted from the end of the car to the construction and operation of the charging pile, which is a boosting charging pile. The main policy factors for the industry's upside. The current 4:1 car piles and the urgent need for the construction of charging piles caused by the continued growth of new energy vehicles in the future are the fundamental driving force for the industry to continue to rise.

In the short term, equipment providers are expected to benefit first with the possible future construction of charging piles. According to estimates, the market for charging piles in the next three years will reach 38.7 billion yuan, and the profit growth of equipment manufacturers can be expected. In the medium and long term, the charging pile operation market is expected to become the next investment hot spot in the industrial chain. As the policy is overweight, short-term operators are expected to rely on subsidies to turn losses into profits. As the business model continues to innovate, value-added services continue to develop, and platform-based operations achieve results, a number of outstanding operating companies are expected to stand out and gain substantial profits from the market. Related companies: Jinguan Electric, Keshida, etc., the core manufacturer of charging pile equipment technology; Te Ruide, the core manufacturer of charging piles.

Midstream: Under the background of subsidy reduction, pay attention to the expected difference in the middle reaches

From the demand side, we believe that the subsidy adjustment in 2018 will not change the growth trend of new energy vehicle production and sales, so the overall demand for battery and battery materials in the middle reaches will not decrease.

On the battery side, the price decline has made the market more competitive. Large-scale battery companies are bound to downstream high-quality vehicle customers, especially the A-class passenger vehicle supply chain. With the growth of passenger car production and sales, the orderly expansion will meet the needs of customers, and the competitive landscape of the strong Hengqiang becomes more and more obvious.

The competition pattern of ternary materials is relatively loose. The upstream cooperation of third-party anode enterprises will help to form cost advantages and maintain profitability. At the same time, binding downstream battery customers to gain market share will achieve greater performance growth. At the same time, the high-nickel ternary is in line with the policy guidance direction, and enterprises with a priority of high-nickel ternary will receive a first-mover advantage.

In the field of diaphragms, dry diaphragms are cost-effective. Under the downward trend of the battery pack price, the battery factory is forced to reduce the cost due to the pressure of profit, while the dry and wet coated diaphragm price gap continues to maintain a high level, the dry film cost performance advantage is highlighted, and some leading battery manufacturers have begun to switch back. Use a dry diaphragm. At the same time, we are optimistic about the development momentum of new energy auto parts. New energy vehicles are different from the main parts of traditional fuel vehicles and their cost structure, which has driven the demand for related auto parts. Related companies: Midstream optimistic about the battery, dry diaphragm and electrolyte lead Guoxuan Gaoke and Tianci materials, pay attention to the source material; while continuing to pay attention to the automotive electronics field.