Looking to the auto market in 2018: Changes in brewing will focus on the outbreak

2017 has entered a countdown. Looking back at this year, there are many emotions.

FAW, Dongfeng and Changan reached a strategic cooperation, Geely acquired Proton, Lotus, JAC, Volkswagen successfully integrated, South Korean and French car sales jumped, Zhongtai backdoor listing and successfully handed Ford ... Not optimistic about 2017 at the beginning of the year In the past year, the Chinese auto market was so magnificent that it was indeed a bit overjoyed.

Today, the time clock has reached the last frame. With the car companies falling behind, 2017 is also basically fixed. Looking at the new year from the year-end and new-year nodes can not help but make people look forward to.

In 2018, what will happen to the Chinese auto market and what major events will affect the Chinese auto market? According to recent interviews, the automobile production network has checked the top ten suspense of the auto market in 2018. If not, please fill in the comments.

1. It is still suspense that the 2018 automobile production and sales will exceed 30 million vehicles to maintain the growth rate of 5%.

In early 2017, China Automobile Association predicted that China's automobile production and sales will reach 29.4 million vehicles, and the growth rate is expected to remain at around 5%. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of China's automobile production and sales reached 4.77% and 4.46%, respectively, which is close to the 5% target for the year forecast by the China Automobile Association.

However, the growth rate of automobile production and sales dropped sharply in October this year, which made the growth rate of 5% in the year questioned. Jian Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Industry Association, admitted that unsatisfactory results in October will affect the realization of the Association’s original target of 5% growth in the annual market, as well as the judgment of the mid to long-term auto market in the future.

In 2018, the economic environment is expected to be the same as in 2017 (the central bank expects China's GDP to increase by around 6.8% this year; it will increase by 6.7% in 2018), which may be the biggest advantage of the auto market in the future, but the purchase tax will return to normal and new energy sources. Subsidy reduction will affect the consumer's enthusiasm for buying a car to some extent. Not surprisingly, in 2018, China's automobile production and sales will reach more than 30 million vehicles, but whether it can reach the growth rate of 5% has yet to be tested.

2. Did the Big Three continue to get close to mergers and reorganizations?

On December 1, China FAW, Dongfeng and Changan Automobile signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement in Wuhan. It is reported that the agreement will focus on technological innovation, full-value-chain operations, joint-venture "going out" and exploration of new business models.

From senior management to the beginning of this year, FAW and Dongfeng signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement, and now the depth cooperation of the Big Three, the re-emergence of the merger and reorganization of the Big Three automobile national team. In 2018, will the national team of the auto company merge like CSR, CNR, Shenhua and Guodian?

In addition to the cooperation between central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises are also driven by policies and capital. On November 7, 2017, Tianjin FAW Xiali announced that the controlling shareholder FAW shares intends to transfer their holdings of FAW Xiali shares. Similar to Guanzhi Auto, on November 17th, the website of the Anhui Changjiang Equity Exchange published an announcement and announced that Guanzhi will transfer 25% of the company's equity.

Which of Tianjin Tianjin FAW's and Guanzhi's pickers are, and will it be Dong and Miss. With the survival of the fittest and the acceleration of new technological innovations by car companies, which mergers and reorganizations will the automobile industry have in 2018, what off-site “barbarians” will usher?

3. After “Great Wall BMW” and SAIC Audi, will Mercedes-Benz have new moves?

In 2018, when the first-line luxury brand ABB stepped onto the sales volume of 600,000 vehicles, seeking new breakthroughs appeared to be an inevitable choice for each brand.

After the SAIC Audi event, BMW also tentatively contacted the Great Wall to discuss the possibility of producing the MINI. At present, BMW does not manufacture MINI cars outside of Europe, and China is one of the MINI's most important markets. Producing MINI here seems to be a wise choice.

Audi, BMW have new attempts, Mercedes-Benz will also be a partner in Beijing Automobile? After the acquisition of Fujian Mercedes-Benz by BAIC, the Mercedes-Benz brand has achieved unity in China. Whether Mercedes-Benz will seek new partners like Audi, or try smart domestic production like BMW, will be a matter of concern in 2018.

Recently, it was reported that Geely Group hopes to participate in Daimler’s acquisition of 5% of Daimler shares and hopes to co-operate with Daimler to establish an electric vehicle joint venture company, although Daimler has already established cooperation with BYD to establish the Tengshi brand. BAIC moved closer and closer in the new energy sector, but this did not affect Geely and Daimler’s recent meeting in Beijing.

4. Will high-end brands force China's brand share to exceed 50%?

With the monthly sales of two models of the WEY brand VV7 and VV5 both exceeding 10,000, Wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motors, set a sales target of 250,000 units for the WEY brand in 2018. Similarly, the lead brand 01 release, 02, 03 will also be listed in 2018. In 2018, with the collective upward trend of the brand, the market share of Chinese brands is expected to continue to rise, and it will seize market share of some joint venture brands.

At present, the Chinese brand market accounts for about 45%, joint venture brands account for about 45%, and the other 10% of the market share is occupied by luxury brands. In 2018, whether Chinese brands can exceed 50% market share, let us wait and see.

5, Tesla domestic boots will eventually land?

Tesla’s domestic production is one of the biggest concerns of the entire automotive industry.

The world’s most successful electric vehicle manufacturer, shaking hands with the world’s largest electric vehicle market and the most powerful automotive supply chain, will jointly open the curtain of electric vehicle prosperity. For years of unchanging joint ventures, Tesla will surely become a restless catfish.

Recently, it was reported that Tesla has established a new energy R&D company in Beijing. Will Tesla's domestic boots land in 2018? What kind of market reaction will stir up?

6. The sales volume of new-energy passenger vehicles for joint venture electric vehicles will exceed one million vehicles?

After the test of individual new energy vehicles, 2018 will be the year for the large-scale introduction of new energy products for joint ventures. Whether it is Toyota's TNGA platform + THS hybrid system, Honda's "Sharp Hybrid" or Buick Blue, Nissan's i-power plan will be concentrated in 2018 force.

In addition, Chang'an Mazda, JAC Volkswagen, Volvo and Geely's joint ventures have all stated that they will launch the first new energy products in 2019. As a joint venture with a relatively conservative approach to new energy sources, the large-scale deployment of new energy means that sales of new energy vehicles in China will increase rapidly.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Association of Travel Unions, predicts that the annual sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2017 will exceed 500,000 vehicles. Whether or not it can double in 2018 and realize 1 million vehicles will become another aspect.

7. What is the next public Taifook?

Although the double-credit policy has been delayed until 2019, there is not much time left for auto companies in the Chinese market.

In 2017, Volkswagen, JAC, Renault-Nissan Alliance and Dongfeng, Ford and Zotye formed a joint venture company to develop, manufacture, and sell new energy vehicles. Prior to this, Daimler and BYD established a joint venture and established Teng Potential brand. Obviously, finding a suitable new energy vehicle company in China to jointly develop the market is an important way for multinational giants to advance the layout of electric vehicles and ease the pressure on integration in China.

However, in addition to the above-mentioned "fast-hand" companies, Toyota, GM, Hyundai Kia, Honda, PSA and other traditional fuel vehicle giants have yet to announce a clear double-credit response plan. Who will be the next company that will co-locate new energy with local companies?

8, Korean legal system car companies descending from their own brands and melee?

Before the Guangzhou Auto Show on November 15th, Beijing Hyundai Motor announced the price of the new ix35, and five 2.0L displacement models priced from RMB 119,900 to 161,900. The price of the Chinese brand's competing products made the outside world eye-catching. It is widely believed that this is a counterattack by Beijing Hyundai in the face of current sales decline and loss of market share.

In 2017, the growth of the auto market slowed down, and some joint-venture car companies with weaker brands were in trouble in their operations: Once the star enterprise Beijing Modern sold only 569,000 vehicles in January-October, their annual sales target was 1.25 million. Vehicle. Similarly, Shenlong Motors also had to cut the annual sales target of 700,000 units set at the beginning of the year to 402,000 units. The two major brands under the company, Dongfeng Peugeot and Dongfeng Citroen, have left their positions.

In 2018, it will be a year that Korean companies and law firms will continue their efforts. How do they deal with it, and whether the price of self-declining and self-owned brands is worthy of attention?

9. Will the fire of Internet-made vehicle-making products fall to the height of the prairie fire?

On December 16, Weilai ES8 will meet with consumers. All-aluminum body, battery life of nearly 400 kilometers, support to replace technology ... ... did not come to market has attracted a lot of attention.

Recently, Weilai has opened the NIO House at the Weilai Centre at No. 1, Chang An Avenue, Beijing. In 2018, the Weilai Centre will also open in 10 regions across the country.

The future has come. New forces have been created by the Internet. However, for a recruit in the automotive industry, Weilai still faces many challenges. While ensuring product strength, how to formulate a sales price that is close to the people? How can more consumers enjoy high-quality services while establishing a direct operation model and an offline experience shop? While supporting the charge-for-equipment technology and joining hands with the State Grid, how can consumers not be troubled by mileage problems?

In 2018, it will be a new year for the constructors to concentrate their efforts. In addition to Weilai, Car and Home, Weimar will also launch its first product. How to grab a slice of the fiercely competitive Chinese auto market and how to use innovation and efforts to honor the original promise is worth looking forward to.

10, BAT force smart car auto manufacturers to stand up?

Almost everyone believes that smart cars will be the next big thing.

On the morning of July 5, Baidu officially released the "Apollo plan." Baidu said that Apollo is an Android system for the automotive industry and is more open and powerful than Android. On October 17, Baidu announced that it will achieve mass production of driverless cars one year ahead of schedule.

Just like smart phones, smart cars must have their own systems. A few months after Baidu’s Apollo project, on October 13th, Alibaba launched the Alios Smart Connect car at the Yunqi conference. The first model will be on Dongfeng Citroen and is expected to be launched in 2018. This is another attempt by Ali and SAIC to successfully build the Roewe RX5 running on the Internet.

Tencent is also accelerating the layout. After setting up the automobile industry fund Harmony Futeng together with Foxconn and Harmony, it has invested in Weilai and Tesla to try to acquire the HERE map. It can be expected that Tencent will integrate its internal resources in its own way. Including cloud, maps, big data and various vehicle linkage platforms, new technology platforms, incubation platforms, content platforms, etc., to provide customized intelligent solutions for the automotive industry.

The giants entered the market with huge amounts of money. The result was only one: the opponents went out and the supporters stood in line.

In 2018, the good show will be staged.